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科技公司的兴衰 The fall and rise of technology juggernauts

工夫:2016-01-08 09:49 阅读:

The San Francisco-based buyout firm Francisco Partners recently published a delicious analysis relevant to anyone wondering about what the future holds for technology stocks. It is a bulletin in which both pessimists and optimists can find hope and it offers a helpful perspective for those wondering about the current valuations of technology companies.

总部位于旧金山的收买团体Francisco Partners近来宣布了一份精炼的剖析,它关于任何推测科技股将来的人都很紧张。在这份剖析中,失望者和悲观者都能找到盼望,它为那些对科技公司以后估值感触疑惑的人提供了一个有协助的视角。

First, the bad news. The 15 technology companies with the largest market capitalisations in 2000 have been decimated — losing about $1.35tn, or roughly 60 per cent, of their combined market value. Only one, Microsoft, has a market capitalisation that is higher than in 2000. One extraordinary aspect of this meltdown is that it did not occur, as some might suspect, in the much ballyhooed dotcom wonder companies of yesteryear. Instead it was a blight that affected most of what were once considered blue-chip technology holdings. In 2000, Nortel sported a market value of $209bn that, like those of its classmates, had been bloated by the enthusiasm of the era; it has since gone bankrupt. While other members of this corporate bracket have avoided that ignominy, their long-term stock charts present bleak pictures. Cisco’s market value has faded from $403bn to $144bn; Intel’s from $288bn to $161bn; and EMC’s from $218bn to $51bn.

起首是坏音讯。2000年市值最高的15家科技公司已严峻萎缩,市值丧失约1.35万亿美元,约占它们总市值的60%。只要微软(Microsoft)一家的市值高于2000年程度。市值滑坡的一个不平凡之处在于,它没有像一些人能够猜想的那样,发作在当年被放肆炒作的网络奇观公司身上。相反,这种不幸落在了少数已经被视为蓝筹科技股的公司身上。2000年,北电网络(Nortel)市值高达2090亿美元,与同行一样,该公司的市值由于当年的市场热情而收缩;厥后该公司停业。虽然其他科技巨子防止了这种不但彩了局,但它们的临时股价图表惨不忍睹。思科(Cisco)市值已从4030亿美元降至1440亿美元;英特尔(Intel)市值已从2880亿美元降至1610亿美元;EMC的市值从2180亿美元降至510亿美元。

For the class of 2000, the sharpest property price declines have been in the deteriorating neighbourhoods of systems, hardware and semiconductors. This is because of the continuing decline in the cost of computing, the rise of open-source software, the move to the “cloud” and the emergence of huge datacentres where companies such as Amazon, Google and Facebook are designing their own approaches.

关于2000年的着名公司而言,最大跌幅呈现在零碎、硬件和半导体等体现日益好转的业务范畴。这是由于盘算本钱继续下滑、开放源软件崛起、转向“云盘算”的趋向,以及大范围数据中央的衰亡,在数据中央范畴,亚马逊(Amazon)、谷歌(Google)和Facebook等公司都在设计本人的战略。

Now a word from sunnier climes. Fifteen companies that were together worth less than $10bn in 2000 are now among the world’s 50 top technology companies as measured by market capitalisation, with a combined worth of $2.1tn. (Had Amazon been included, rather than being classified as a retailer, this number would have swollen by another $250bn). Apple, which even in 2000 was viewed as little more than a curiosity, has risen in value from $6bn to $659bn. A few themes jump out of this listing: the power of novelty, the shift towards China, the benefits of patience and the virtues of capital efficiency.

如今说点让人比拟痛快的事变吧。2000年总市值不到100亿美元的15家公司,现在就市值而言已跻身环球科技公司50强,它们的总市值高达2.1万亿美元。(假如加上亚马逊(而不是将其列为一家批发商),这个数字会再添加2500亿美元)。即便在2000年,苹果(Apple)仍只是被视为一家独特的公司,现在其市值已从60亿美元飙升至6590亿美元。这份名单表现出如许几个主题:新鲜性的威力、重心转向中国的趋向、耐烦的益处以及资源服从的紧张性。

Several of today’s most valuable technology companies did not even exist in 2000. Facebook, LinkedIn and Twitter together have a collective corporate history of only 33 years. Even Google and Salesforce were barely smudges on the horizon in 2000. These companies now have a combined value of about $850bn. Beyond some of the customised systems they operate in their own datacentres, and in Google’s case, some sideline activities such as its Nexus phones and Chrome notebooks, none of these companies sully their hands with anything as taxing as hardware. They have thrived from the artful deployment of software, in particular the “cloud based” variant, and — for Facebook, LinkedIn, Twitter (and Google’s YouTube service) — organising and collating the contributions of their users.

现在市值最高的几家科技公司在2000年乃至还未问世。Facebook、LinkedIn和Twitter三家公司的汗青加起来也就33年。2000年,就连谷歌和Salesforce也还只是地平线上的小点。这些公司如今的总市值约为8500亿美元。除了它们在各自的数据中央运转的一些定制零碎以及(就谷歌而言)像Nexus手机和Chrome条记本等副业以外,这些公司都没有费心介入顺手的硬件业务。它们的乐成来自于奇妙的软件摆设,特殊是“基于云”的软件,以及(就Facebook、 LinkedIn、Twitter以及谷歌的YouTube效劳而言)构造和整理用户天生的内容。

Perched in a clump as the fourth, fifth and sixth most valuable technology companies of the day are Alibaba, Tencent and Baidu. This threesome is now worth $409bn — testament not just to how much China has progressed in a decade and a half but a harbinger of the next several decades as the country places increasing emphasis on spawning its own technology. Woe betide the management of any western technology company that underestimates the challenge posed by the vast number of emerging Chinese competitors, fuelled by an ambition and work regimen that is hard to match in Europe and the US.

现在在市值排行榜上位居第四、第五和第六位的公司是阿里巴巴(Alibaba)、腾讯(Tencent)和百度(Baidu)。这三家公司现在的总市值为4090亿美元,这不只证明白中国在15年里获得了宏大提高,还预示着将来几十年的格式。中国正越来越注意开展自主技能。低料中国的大批新兴竞争敌手将会带来的应战,将给东方科技公司办理层带来恶运。驱策中国竞争敌手的雄心和任务文明是泰西难以对抗的。

Finally, a note about two other themes that jump out of this listing: patience and profits.

最初说一下这份名单表现出的别的两个主题:耐烦和利润。

Most investors in technology companies squander vast sums by reacting to short-term jitters or global jolts rather than concentrating on the staying power of those emerging enterprises on the right side of history.

科技公司的少数投资者会糜费巨额资金,由于他们对短期恐慌或环球动乱做出条件反射式的反响,而不是专注于契合汗青潮水的新兴企业的耐久力。

And for the founders and chief executives of all of the current billion-dollar “unicorns” there is another abiding message. Almost all of today’s technology juggernauts formed before about 2008 required smallish amounts of capital. Google, for example, consumed only $8m before turning profitable. Maybe this means that sooner or later a new class of company will come into vogue — a rare species known as the profitable unicorn.

关于以后一切10亿美元级的“独角兽”企业的开创人和首席实行官而言,另有一条永久的信息。在2008年左右之前创立的简直一切科技巨子,现在都需求很少的资金投入。比方,谷歌在完成红利之前仅耗费了800万美元。这大概意味着,新一类的公司早晚会盛行:它们将是被称为“红利独角兽”的珍稀物种。